Prediction market arb agent
On a binary market, YES and NO should sum to $1.00. When they do not, the pair can be bought for a defined return regardless of which side resolves. The agent scans for those gaps continuously and enters only when the edge clears its costs.
Each cycle the agent reads a batch of open markets and checks whether the YES and NO legs sum to less than one dollar. Most do not, and most of those that do are filtered out before any price is evaluated.
A wide spread on a market with almost no volume is not an opportunity, it is an absence of counterparties, and that becomes apparent when you try to fill. Markets resolving on ambiguous or disputed criteria are excluded for the same reason: a mispricing you cannot explain is not an edge.
Prediction market venues commonly settle in USDC on Polygon while trading capital sits elsewhere, so entries carry a fixed bridging cost. That cost is charged per entry while the edge is proportional to size, which sets a break-even position below which a correct trade still loses money.
On a binary market the YES and NO outcomes should sum to $1.00, because exactly one of them pays out. When the pair trades below that, buying both locks in the difference regardless of which side wins. The trade requires no view on the underlying event.
No. The payout logic is defined, but execution is not. Legs can fill at different prices, liquidity can disappear between identifying and entering, markets can resolve on criteria you did not anticipate, and capital is locked until resolution. It is a defined-outcome trade, not a risk-free one.
Mispricings on liquid prediction markets are closed quickly, because this is the most obvious trade in the venue and many participants look for it. A scanner that reports no entry on most cycles is behaving correctly rather than failing.
More than most people expect. Because bridging and transaction costs are charged per entry while the edge scales with position size, there is a position size below which a correctly identified arbitrage still loses money. Divide your fixed cost per entry by your expected edge to find it.
Yes. Qwnt supports paper mode so you can observe how often the scanner finds qualifying opportunities before committing live capital.
Trading digital assets involves risk. Qwnt AI does not guarantee profits, and strategy performance can change with market conditions. Start with paper trading and review risk controls before using live capital.